Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex

Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis investment projects enterprises in the mineral resource sector economy are considered, its advantages disadvantages analyzed. Taking into account organizational economic features resources management, a number new modifications method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing information uncertainty assessing expected efficiency risk projects, proposed. The peculiarity proposed is use interval-probabilistic approach implementation procedure. This based on moderately pessimistic system preferences obtaining point values project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates hierarchy method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. maximum likelihood sense priori probability as estimates. An additional indicator assessment, which characterizes event that net present value will take less than specified one, When analyzing one project, this more informative standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested improvement validity decisions developed using modified compared method.